How long will it take to develop molecular manufacturing?

We began our discussion with physics and chemistry and continued with the capture and placement of single atoms using new devices like the scanning tunneling microscope. Shortly thereafter, researchers were able to create the carbon nanotube, which is likely to become our primary structural element in the future. Nobel Laureate Dr. Richard Smalley (Rice University) discussed the advances in carbon nanotube manipulation in his 1996 address: From Balls to Tubes to Ropes: New Materials from Carbon. Recent presentations at the Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology highlight that this development continues as we gain the ability to assemble the fibers into sheets and three-dimensional lattices. Dr. Carlo Montemagno (formerly of Cornell, now at UCLA) and his team of researchers have created the first molecular motor, and this gives us an inkling of some of the atom transport systems that may arise.

Computer systems continue to advance as well, with the development of faster, smaller, and cheaper systems that have greater capacity. Assuming that security systems also see improvement, then these should be applicable to molecular machines, once they are developed. These improvements will also impact our ability to model new molecular devices, and help stabilize design parameters before the machines are actually built.

Development in nanotechnology is expected to continue at an accelerating pace, given that funding for these types of research is increasingly available. While informed estimates range from 15 to 50 years, it seems clear that molecular manufacturing will arrive in the not-too-distant future. We recommend that you read Nanodot or become a Basic Contributor member of Foresight, entitling you to receive Foresight Update, which contains information on the latest developments.